San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA...Arlington, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
San Antonio, TX...Memphis, TN...New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...
SPC AC 250058
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and
isolated tornadoes will be possible over parts of the southern
Plains into the Arklatex, this evening into tonight.
...Southern Plains/Arklatex...
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough in northwest
Mexico with southwest mid-level flow over the southern Plains. At
the surface, a cold front is located in northern and central Texas
with a 995 mb low located to the south of the front in far northern
Mexico. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are ongoing near
and to the east of the cold front across north-central and northeast
Texas. The convection is located along the western edge of a
corridor of moderate instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE
along this corridor to be from 1200 to 1800 J/kg. This combined with
0-6 km shear in the 50 to 65 kt range will be favorable for
supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible across parts of north-central Texas this
evening where instability is a bit stronger than in areas to the
northeast. Some convective allowing models suggest that bowing
structures will develop across north-central and northeast Texas
from late this evening into tonight. These structures would be
capable of producing wind damage. A tornado or two may also occur.
Further to the southwest into the southwestern Texas Hill Country,
the RAP is analyzing a pocket of moderate to strong instability,
where MLCAPE is estimated in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range.
Thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the western edge of this
pocket of instability late this evening, with cells moving
northeastward across the Texas Hill Country tonight. 0-6 km shear in
the 60 to 70 kt range along with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.0 to
7.5 C/km will be favorable for large hail and wind damage.
Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible
with the more dominant supercells. A few wind gusts of greater than
65 kt may also occur, especially in southwestern parts of the Texas
Hill Country where the strongest instability is located.
...Lower Mississippi Valley...
Southwest mid-level flow will remain in place across the
southeastern U.S. this evening into tonight, as an upper-level
trough moves into the southern High Plains. In response to the
approaching system, moisture advection will take place across the
lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Thunderstorm development may
continue across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi
and southern Alabama as the low-level jet gradually strengthens this
evening. These storms are forecast to move northward across central
Mississippi and west-central Alabama later tonight as warm advection
continues across the region. Although the convection should be
primarily elevated, a few marginally severe wind gusts and hail will
be possible.
..Broyles.. 03/25/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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