Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 260100
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
ALABAMA...NORTHWEST GEORGIA...TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...
...SUMMARY...
Supercells capable of producing tornadoes, wind damage and large
hail will be possible this evening from Alabama northward into
Tennessee and Kentucky. Isolated severe storms will also occur
across parts of the Ohio Valley and in the central Gulf Coast.
...Gulf Coast States/Southern Appalachians/Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over the mid
Mississippi Valley with a pronounced dry slot wrapping through the
base of the trough. The core of a 75 to 100 knot mid-level jet is
located within the dry slot. A plume of mid-level moisture extends
from south-central Alabama northeastward across northwest Georgia.
Several strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing along this
corridor. RAP analysis currently shows moderate instability in place
across most of Alabama where MLCAPE is estimated to be from 1200 to
1800 J/kg. The instability combined with 0-6 km shear in the 70 to
80 kt range will support supercells. The potential for supercells is
expeted to persist through much of the evening. Low-level shear will
support a tornado threat with the more dominant supercells. The
instability and strong deep-layer shear will also support a wind
damage and large hail threat this evening.
Further north into western and middle Tennessee, moderate
instability is also analyzed by the RAP, with MLCAPE generally in
the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. A cluster of severe storms with an
embedded supercell is ongoing to the southwest of Nashville,
Tennessee. This cluster will continue to move east-northeastward
across middle Tennessee this evening. The Nashville, TN WSR-88D VWP
has about 75 kt of 0-6 km shear with 0-3 km storm relative helicity
of almost 600 m2/s2. This will support a tornado threat over the
next few hours. A strong tornado will be possible. Supercells will
also be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. The wind
damage threat could become enhanced later this evening as the
convection becomes increasingly linear. Wind gusts of greater than
65 knots may occur along the leading edge of bow echoes.
Northward into the Ohio Valley, a north-to-south band of strong
thunderstorms is ongoing from western Kentucky into southern
Indiana. These storms will move east-northeastward across central
and northern Kentucky into southeast Indiana and southern Ohio.
Although the airmass is weakly unstable, large-scale ascent and
strong deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet streak
will result in a severe threat. The stronger multicell line segments
could produce wind damage and hail. If the stronger cells develop
rotation, then an isolated tornado threat may also develop.
..Broyles.. 03/26/2021
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