SPC AC 261256

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0756 AM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021

   Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST...NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
   LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the
   Southeast and Northeast States/New England, and across the central
   Plains late this afternoon and evening. Marginally severe hail may
   also occur in parts of the lower Mississippi Valley late tonight.

   ...Northeast States/New England...
   A fast-moving shortwave trough/jet streak located over the lower
   Great Lakes early this morning will reach New England by late
   afternoon, with an associated cold front also steadily moving
   east-northeastward into New England this afternoon. While overall
   destabilization will be modest (<500 J/kg MLCAPE), 50s F surface
   dewpoints in conjunction with a warming boundary layer should yield
   an increase and intensification of thunderstorms through late
   morning/midday. In the presence of very strong deep-layer winds,
   accentuated by 40-55 kt winds within the lowest 2-3 km AGL, these
   fast-moving/low-topped thunderstorms could yield isolated wind
   damage through the afternoon.

   ...Georgia/Carolinas...
   Scattered thunderstorms persist early today within a
   northeast/southwest-oriented corridor near a decelerating/stalling
   front. The air mass to the east of the front remains moist and is
   expected to moderately destabilize further into the afternoon.
   However, mass convergence will tend to weaken today as upper ridging
   gradually builds over the region. While deep-layer shear will remain
   strong, low-level winds will continue to weaken over much of the
   region today. Although a few organized storms could produce wind
   damage today, the overall risk should remain isolated and relatively
   marginal in nature, with storm intensity decreasing toward/after
   sunset.

   ...Central Plains...
   A lead low-amplitude shortwave trough amid moderately strong
   southwesterly flow aloft will influence surface cyclogenesis across
   western Kansas today, with a surface triple point establishing in
   vicinity of west-central Kansas by early evening. Although southerly
   winds will strengthen ahead of the low, the source region air mass
   will limit surface dewpoints to the middle/upper 40s F. Although
   overall buoyancy will be weak (MUCAPE less than 1000 J/kg), steep
   mid-level lapse rates and ample effective shear may support isolated
   severe storms capable of hail and perhaps localized wind damage late
   this afternoon through early/mid-evening, particularly in areas
   near/north of I-70 of northern Kansas into southern Nebraska (mainly
   south of I-80).

   ...Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley late tonight...
   Isolated severe hail will be possible across the region late
   tonight. A warm front and a related influx of moist air is expected
   to surge northward tonight into the region with the aid of a
   moderate strongly (~30 kt) southwesterly low-level jet. Elevated
   thunderstorms are expected to develop overnight (initially 06-09Z)
   and further increase/expand north-northeastward through the early
   morning hours of Saturday. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates
   and upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg source-region MUCAPE combined with
   effective shear around 40 kt could support some transient elevated
   supercells capable of severe hail.

   ..Guyer/Kerr.. 03/26/2021

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