Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
49,819
3,644,217
Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Jackson, TN...Bossier City, LA...Pine Bluff, AR...
10 %
55,940
4,306,473
Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Murfreesboro, TN...Jackson, TN...Bossier City, LA...
5 %
41,246
4,120,255
Nashville, TN...Little Rock, AR...Huntsville, AL...Chattanooga, TN...Longview, TX...
2 %
92,383
8,461,722
St. Louis, MO...Knoxville, TN...Clarksville, TN...Tyler, TX...Decatur, IL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 280104
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021
Valid 280100Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM
PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND TN VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MID MS VALLEY AND COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
The threat for severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards,
including very large hail, significant damaging winds, and a couple
of strong tornadoes, remains tonight from the Ark-La-Tex
east-northeastward across parts of the Mid South and Tennessee
Valley.
...01Z Update...
...Arklatex/Mid-South/TN Valley...
Corridor currently covered by Tornado Watches 59 and 60 remains
favorable for all severe hazards. Current mesoanalysis places an
area of 30-35 kt 850 mb wind from east TX up into middle TN. This is
resulting in an area of favorable low-level vertical shear. Recent
SHV VAD sampled 300+ m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity.
Numerous supercells within this corridor have shown low-level
rotation, with several confirmed tornadoes thus far.
This corridor is expected to remain favorable for supercells capable
of all severe hazards, include a strong tornado, large hail, and
strong wind gusts, for the next several hours. Thereafter, upscale
growth into a linear MCS is anticipated, with threat for strong wind
gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes persisting throughout the night.
...Southern IL and Vicinity...
Ongoing storms in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 62 continue to pose a
risk for large hail and damaging winds. Improving low-level shear
may foster an isolated tornado threat, at least while supercell
modes can be maintained.
As mentioned in MCD 290, convection is now intensifying along the
advancing cold front across far southeast Missouri. A linear mode
convection seems likely, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts,
though embedded supercell structures may materialized with time.
...NC...
As mentioned in MCD 288, severe storms moving across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 61 will continue to pose a threat for large hail
and damaging wind gusts for the next hour or two before moving
offshore.
..Mosier.. 03/28/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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