Mar 29, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 29 00:41:41 UTC 2021 (20210329 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20210329 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20210329 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 57,025 11,260,083 Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Newport News, VA...Hampton, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20210329 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20210329 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 57,130 11,273,912 Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Newport News, VA...Hampton, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20210329 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 290041

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0741 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

   Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
   IMMEDIATE COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible for the next hour or
   two across the immediate coastal areas along the East Coast.

   ...01Z Update...
   The cold front has pushed offshore across the northern Mid-Atlantic
   while a small portion of southern New England remains ahead of it.
   Limited buoyancy and low-level stability will limit storm strength,
   although strong wind fields and ongoing shallow convection could
   still result in a convectively augmented gusts or two at the
   surface. 

   Farther south from the coastal Mid-Atlantic into the coastal
   Southeast, a few stronger storms could contribute to a strong wind
   gust or two. This is particularly the case across coastal GA and SC
   where modest buoyancy exists with the limited area ahead of the
   pre-frontal trough. Radar trends in this area continue to show
   sporadic updraft intensification.

   ..Mosier.. 03/29/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z