Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...New Orleans, LA...Virginia Beach, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
31,241
1,793,331
Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Dothan, AL...Auburn, AL...Phenix City, AL...
2 %
141,200
25,158,424
Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 311251
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Wed Mar 31 2021
Valid 311300Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are possible today through early
evening across a broad portion of the Southeast, with damaging gusts
the primary severe threat. More isolated severe storms are also
possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.
...Synopsis...
Upper trough amplification will continue to occur today over the
Midwest/lower Great Lakes toward the Appalachians, with a belt of
very strong southwesterly winds aloft overspreading the Tennessee
Valley and Appalachians. A related cold front will continue a
southeastward progression across the Deep South, with a broad
corridor of severe risk near/ahead of the front.
...Southeast States including Louisiana to Georgia...
Bands of showers and thunderstorms, including some semi-organized
bowing structures across northern Alabama, are ongoing early today
as they generally parallel the southeastward-advancing cold front.
Boundary-parallel shear vectors will continue to favor a
quasi-linear storm mode. Although cloud cover is prevalent within
the warm sector early today, a diurnal steepening of low-level lapse
rates and an increase in buoyancy into afternoon should yield
increasingly organized linear structures with embedded bows.
Damaging wind gusts are likely to be the most common risk. Low-level
flow is forecast to be strong enough to potentially support some
line-embedded/QLCS tornadoes, particularly across southern Alabama
into western Georgia, which will be in proximity to a weak surface
wave and stronger southwesterly 2-3 km AGL winds.
...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States...
Low-level moisture advection ahead of the approaching cold
front/upper trough is expected to bring low 60s dewpoints as far
north as the Delmarva Peninsula this afternoon. While lapse rates
and overall buoyancy will be minimal across much of Virginia and the
Delmarva vicinity, linearly organized bands of thunderstorms may
develop near the front this afternoon in areas near and east of the
Blue Ridge. Strong deep-layer winds could yield isolated damaging
wind gusts. Some pre-frontal warm sector storms are also possible
across the central/eastern Carolinas as the air mass destabilizes,
with wind damage as the primary risk.
..Guyer/Kerr.. 03/31/2021
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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