Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
21,586
1,921,648
Mobile, AL...Dothan, AL...Pensacola, FL...Panama City, FL...Ferry Pass, FL...
5 %
65,409
9,686,551
New Orleans, LA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...Greensboro, NC...Chesapeake, VA...
SPC AC 100534
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Louisiana
eastward to the Florida Panhandle, and northward into Alabama and
western Georgia Saturday. Damaging wind appears to be the main
threat, but a few tornadoes are also possible.
...Eastern Gulf States/Southeast...
Low-latitude short-wave trough is currently located over east TX.
This feature will translate across the central Gulf States by 18z,
then eject into the western Carolinas by 11/00z. This feature
appears to be partly responsible for upscale convective growth
across the lower MS Valley early this morning. Latest thinking
(supported by the HREF) is a large complex of storms should
propagate southeast across LA/MS/AL by sunrise. This activity should
be aided by a maturing squall line, along a surging cold front, that
will likely progress into southern LA by the start of the period.
Much of the central Gulf States will have considerable convective
overturning during the next 8 hours and the most buoyant,
unobstructed air mass will be maintained across southeastern LA into
the western FL Panhandle and southern AL. It appears a
well-organized MCS will propagate off the central Gulf Coast early
in the period as the aforementioned progressive short wave ejects
rapidly east toward the southern Appalachians by mid day. Given the
expected overturning, have lowered severe probabilities across
northern AL but will maintain an Enhanced Risk for primarily
damaging winds along the leading edge of the MCS, though a QLCS
tornado can not be ruled out, or perhaps with a few discrete
supercells.
Downstream, LLJ is forecast to increase across the Carolinas by late
afternoon ahead of the short wave. Surface-6km shear will increase
markedly across this region which will become more supportive for
organized updrafts. However, buoyancy is expected to remain weak and
it's not clear if sufficient instability will be available for
sustained supercells. If it appears instability will be adequate for
organized updrafts then a secondary corridor of higher probabilities
may be warranted by late afternoon.
...Elsewhere...
Strong mid-level height falls will spread across the mid MS Valley
into the lower OH Valley during the day ahead of a strong short-wave
trough. Notable surface low will respond to this feature and deepen
over northern IL by 18z. Will maintain low severe probabilities for
a few strong thunderstorms ahead of this feature; however, weak
buoyancy will be the primary inhibiting factor in an otherwise
synoptically favorable region for severe.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/10/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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