Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Chicago, IL...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
18,255
962,765
Tallahassee, FL...Panama City, FL...Houma, LA...Fort Walton Beach, FL...Lynn Haven, FL...
SPC AC 101626
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021
Valid 101630Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FL AND SOUTH GA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible this
afternoon with a squall line across north Florida and south Georgia,
as well as farther north across the Carolinas into the Ohio Valley.
...North FL/south GA this afternoon...
A large MCS and associated cold pool, emanating from overnight
convection, is moving eastward across the eastern FL Panhandle and
southwest GA as of midday. Lightning flash rates and echo tops have
been diminishing some since late morning, which appears to be a
reflection of the storms encountering lesser low-level moisture with
eastward extent. Some surface heating and modest moisture increases
could maintain some threat for damaging winds into this afternoon
across north FL/south GA, but the overall trend should be slowly
downward through this evening.
...OH Valley through this evening...
An occluded low over the middle MS Valley will move slowly
northeastward toward IN by tonight. Clouds are widespread in the
warm sector of the system (north of the widespread convection along
the Gulf coast), and midlevel lapse rates are relatively poor.
Pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks (mainly centered on OH)
will support steepening low-level lapse rates and the potential for
isolated strong gusts with pre-frontal convection this afternoon.
Farther west and closer to the surface cyclone/cold front, somewhat
richer low-level moisture, but cooler surface temperatures, will
tend to limit buoyancy this afternoon. While low-level and
deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some threat for low-topped
supercells, the poor thermodynamic environment suggests that any
tornado threat should remain rather limited.
...Carolinas/VA this afternoon into early tonight...
A series of convectively-enhanced shortwave troughs will rotate
northeastward from the southern Appalachians vicinity to the
Carolinas/VA this afternoon into early tonight. These embedded
speed maxima will provide some forcing for ascent and a boost to
low-level flow/shear, but they will also be accompanied by
substantial cloud cover that will spread northeastward through the
afternoon. Thus, phasing of buoyancy (likely skewed closer to the
coastal plain with richer moisture and longer-duration surface
heating) and the somewhat stronger vertical shear (farther west with
the thicker clouds) will be rather poor, which suggests that only
low damaging wind and tornado probabilities are appropriate.
...Northeast Gulf coast early Sunday...
In the wake of the widespread convection today, some increase in
low-level warm advection and low-level recovery is expected
overnight across the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Destabilization
could become sufficient for a marginal hail/wind threat, though the
threat could be delayed until the end of the period as a result of
the persistence and stabilizing influence of the ongoing convection.
..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/10/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
| 
)
