Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
29,181
5,758,730
Charlotte, NC...Greensboro, NC...Winston-Salem, NC...High Point, NC...Roanoke, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
29,361
5,760,330
Charlotte, NC...Greensboro, NC...Winston-Salem, NC...High Point, NC...Roanoke, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
26,409
2,977,805
Tallahassee, FL...Gainesville, FL...Spring Hill, FL...Pensacola, FL...Ocala, FL...
SPC AC 110037
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021
Valid 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from
western North Carolina into southeast West Virginia. Strong storms
may also develop later tonight across portions of northern Florida.
...01z Update...
Early-evening radar data exhibits a well-defined MCV has evolved
over western NC in the vicinity of Burke County. This feature is
moving northeast at roughly 30kt. Strongest convection is
immediately ahead of this feature where deep-layer flow/shear
remains supportive of organized, sustained updrafts. While buoyancy
remains weak, will maintain a MRGL Risk for a few wind gusts with
storms ahead of the MCV, along with an outside chance for a brief,
weak tornado.
Farther south, early-day convection that surged across northern FL
has progressed southeast and is mostly offshore. 00z sounding from
TLH has sampled this post-convective environment well with very dry
mid levels and deep westerly flow. However, satellite imagery
suggests scattered convection is beginning to deepen over the
northern Gulf Basin and there is some concern that this activity
could spread/develop into portions of northern FL later tonight.
Forecast soundings suggest convection should be elevated, thus a low
probability for hail will be maintained across this region to
account for this threat.
..Darrow.. 04/11/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
| 
)
