Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 %
18,098
7,147,898
Tampa, FL...Orlando, FL...Port St. Lucie, FL...West Palm Beach, FL...Lakeland, FL...
Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
80,012
31,173,269
Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...
SPC AC 111629
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021
Valid 111630Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL FL...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging winds, a tornado or two, and isolated large hail are
expected this afternoon across central Florida. The threat for a
few damaging gusts will also shift southward into south Florida
later this afternoon/evening.
...Central/south FL this afternoon/evening...
A large cluster of thunderstorms that formed early this morning
across the northeast Gulf of Mexico is evolving into a bowing MCS as
it moves onshore near Tampa. The storms will likely move along an
outflow boundary across central FL through the day, with the storms
forcing the outflow southward with time. Surface heating and
increases in low-level moisture south of the boundary, along with 50
kt west-southwesterly midlevel flow, will support the threat for
swaths of damaging gusts with the bowing segments. A tornado or two
may also occur with embedded circulations where the bowing segments
interact with the east-west oriented outflow boundary.
The threat for at least isolated damaging winds will shift southward
with time along the outflow boundary, spreading into south FL this
afternoon/evening.
...Eastern NC into the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening...
A lead shortwave trough is rotating northeastward over the
Mid-Atlantic as of midday, with little forcing for ascent (or weak
subsidence) in its wake. Given surface heating and lingering
low-level moisture along and ahead of a cold front, a few storms may
still develop this afternoon, with the more probable area from VA
into south central PA. There will be marginally sufficient vertical
shear and buoyancy for a low-end threat for damaging winds and/or
large hail with the strongest storms this afternoon/evening.
..Thompson/Guyer.. 04/11/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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