Cape Coral, FL...Bonita Springs, FL...Golden Gate, FL...Key West, FL...Naples, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
2,692
668,901
Cape Coral, FL...Bonita Springs, FL...Golden Gate, FL...Key West, FL...Naples, FL...
SPC AC 120058
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021
Valid 120100Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA COASTLINE...
...SUMMARY...
An instance or two of marginally severe hail may accompany the
stronger storms across the Florida Peninsula over the next few
hours. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across portions of
the Mid Atlantic through early tonight.
...01Z Update...
The propagation of an earlier mature MCS across the FL Peninsula has
overturned the more buoyant airmass. Nonetheless, continued warm-air
advection and associated gradual ascent of moist parcels ahead of an
approaching cold front supports continued, mainly elevated
convection across far eastern portions of the Gulf, with a few
organized multicellular storms impinging on the western shoreline of
the Florida Peninsula. The 00z TBW observed sounding depicts an
absolutely stable tropospheric profile, while the KEY 00Z observed
sounding, modified for recent convective outflow, suggests up to
2000 J/kg MLCAPE may still be present across the Florida Keys.
Thunderstorm probabilities have been continued across the central
and southern Florida Peninsula as marginal elevated instability may
still be present to support a few lightning flashes. A Marginal risk
for large hail also continues along the western coastline, as the
deeper mid-level lapse rates may not have been diluted from the
earlier storms to completely eliminate the risk for hail stones
around 1 inch in diameter.
Otherwise, remnant marginal instability remains ahead of ongoing
convection across the Mid Atlantic. These storms may continue for a
few more hours, until further nocturnal cooling erodes the remaining
buoyancy in place, with lightning flash frequency expected to
decrease.
..Squitieri/Darrow.. 04/12/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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