New York, NY...Virginia Beach, VA...Newark, NJ...Norfolk, VA...Jersey City, NJ...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
New York, NY...Virginia Beach, VA...Newark, NJ...Norfolk, VA...Jersey City, NJ...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
13,084
4,195,105
Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Newport News, VA...Hampton, VA...
SPC AC 211920
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021
Valid 212000Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TO WESTERN LONG ISLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Locally damaging winds remain possible across the Mid Atlantic Coast
region and into southern New England through around 6 PM EDT.
...Discussion...
Ongoing evolution of convection across the SLGT and MRGL risk areas
remains consistent with meteorological reasoning described in prior
outlooks. As storms continue to develop and spread northeastward,
potential for locally damaging winds continues.
The outlook is being trimmed on the western and southern sections,
in tandem with convective advance. A small northeastward expansion
of the SLGT risk area will also be included -- across southeastern
Vermont and parts of southern New Hampshire, ahead of a
northeastward-moving band of storms evolving over the Hudson Valley
area.
Risk will diminish into this evening, due to a combination of storms
moving offshore of the Mid Atlantic region, and
diurnal/boundary-layer cooling.
..Goss.. 04/21/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Wed Apr 21 2021/
...Mid-Atlantic States to New England...
Surface temperatures continue to steadily warm at midday with
moderate insolation in the wake of showers moving into New England.
A 1001 mb surface low over northeast Pennsylvania/northern New
Jersey at 16Z will continue to steadily deepen as it quickly
transitions northeastward into southern/coastal New England through
early evening. The longest residence time of the warm sector over
inland areas this afternoon will be across the coastal North
Carolinas and the immediate coast of New Jersey/New York into
southern New England.
Influenced by the amplifying upstream wave, strengthening of low to
mid-level southwesterlies should yield upscale evolution to
quasi-linear segments along coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic
into southern New England. More broken cells should be maintained
farther south where a few transient supercells are possible. A
well-mixed boundary layer with an inverted-v thermodynamic profile
and pressure rise/fall couplet may support strong to isolated severe
gusts with scattered damaging winds as the primary hazard. Farther
south, marginally severe hail is possible where storm mode can
remain semi-discrete before convection quickly spreads off the coast
by late afternoon.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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