Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
New Orleans, LA...Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Huntsville, AL...Chattanooga, TN...
SPC AC 241618
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021
Valid 241630Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA...NORTH FLORIDA...AND
SOUTHERN GEORGIA....
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
Southeast, with large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes.
...FL Panhandle / Southern GA...
A long-lived cluster of thunderstorms continues to track rapidly
eastward across southern GA. These storms will approach the GA and
southern SC coast early this afternoon with a risk of locally
damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. The flanking line of
this activity extends southwestward into the FL Panhandle, where
ample low-level moisture and low-level shear remain. These trailing
storms may continue to pose a severe risk through much of the
afternoon, with all hazards possible. Please refer to MCD #422 for
further details.
...Southern AL into Southwest GA...
Visible satellite imagery shows pockets of daytime heating
developing across portions of southern MS/AL. This is north of the
primary convective boundary along the Gulf coast, but is an area
with residual dewpoints in the mid 60s and the potential for
moderate afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Low-level shear
profiles are expected to gradually weaken/veer through the afternoon
as the main low-level wind fields move away from the region.
However, forecast soundings show favorable thermodynamic profiles
for large hail and damaging wind gusts as storms re-develop by
mid/late afternoon. A few tornadoes will remain possible as well.
...Southeast TN / Northern AL / Western GA...
Low-level moisture will be quite limited farther north across this
region, but cold temperatures aloft will somewhat compensate,
resulting in marginal MLCAPE values this afternoon. Several 12z CAM
solutions indicate the development of isolated thunderstorms. Hail
appears to be a risk with the stronger cells, but it is unclear how
much of the hail will exceed 1 inch. Therefore will maintain/expand
the ongoing MRGL risk.
..Hart/Squitieri.. 04/24/2021
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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