SPC AC 242000

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

   Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SOUTHERN
   PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Widely scattered severe thunderstorms will persist into the evening
   over southern parts of the Gulf Coast States. Large hail, damaging
   wind, and a few tornadoes remain possible. Other severe storms with
   large hail and strong wind gusts are possible into early evening
   from northern Alabama into southern Middle Tennessee as well as
   farther east into western Georgia.

   ...Northern AL through southern Middle TN...

   Have pulled SLGT risk area up to northern AL into southern Middle
   TN. As low clouds mix from the south, boundary layer recovery is
   occurring with temperatures rising through the 60s and into the 70s.
   Latest objective analysis shows MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE
   with further destabilization likely. A corridor of widely scattered
   to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in this region
   this afternoon in association with deeper ascent attending an
   eastward-advancing vorticity maximum currently over western TN and
   northern MS. Strong unidirectional shear will support some supercell
   structures with large hail the initial primary threat, though
   locally strong wind gusts may also occur, especially with any
   clustering of storms toward early evening.

   ...Central AL...

   Otherwise, a few storms might evolve out of the deepening cumulus
   field spreading through south central AL and eventually into west
   central GA. Isolated large hail and locally strong wind gusts will
   be the main threat in this region through early evening. 

   ...Southern portions of the Gulf Coast States...

   Primary threat for damaging wind and tornadoes remain across
   northern FL where embedded organized storms including supercell
   structures are developing along a slowly southward advancing outflow
   boundary.  Farther west, the outflow boundary has stalled, but
   storms (including a few supercells) continue developing along and
   north of this feature. The primary threat in this region appears to
   be large hail but locally strong wind gusts and a brief tornado
   remain possible.

   ..Dial.. 04/24/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021/

   ...FL Panhandle / Southern GA...
   A long-lived cluster of thunderstorms continues to track rapidly
   eastward across southern GA.  These storms will approach the GA and
   southern SC coast early this afternoon with a risk of locally
   damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.  The flanking line of
   this activity extends southwestward into the FL Panhandle, where
   ample low-level moisture and low-level shear remain.  These trailing
   storms may continue to pose a severe risk through much of the
   afternoon, with all hazards possible.  Please refer to MCD #422 for
   further details.

   ...Southern AL into Southwest GA...
   Visible satellite imagery shows pockets of daytime heating
   developing across portions of southern MS/AL.  This is north of the
   primary convective boundary along the Gulf coast, but is an area
   with residual dewpoints in the mid 60s and the potential for
   moderate afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg.  Low-level shear
   profiles are expected to gradually weaken/veer through the afternoon
   as the main low-level wind fields move away from the region. 
   However, forecast soundings show favorable thermodynamic profiles
   for large hail and damaging wind gusts as storms re-develop by
   mid/late afternoon. A few tornadoes will remain possible as well.

   ...Southeast TN / Northern AL / Western GA...
   Low-level moisture will be quite limited farther north across this
   region, but cold temperatures aloft will somewhat compensate,
   resulting in marginal MLCAPE values this afternoon.  Several 12z CAM
   solutions indicate the development of isolated thunderstorms.  Hail
   appears to be a risk with the stronger cells, but it is unclear how
   much of the hail will exceed 1 inch.  Therefore will maintain/expand
   the ongoing MRGL risk.

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