Apr 25, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Apr 25 00:59:05 UTC 2021 (20210425 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20210425 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20210425 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 56,944 8,615,108 Atlanta, GA...Columbus, GA...Tallahassee, FL...Sandy Springs, GA...Roswell, GA...
MARGINAL 47,617 6,252,902 Jacksonville, FL...Mobile, AL...Savannah, GA...Gainesville, FL...Charleston, SC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20210425 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 27,571 2,055,420 Tallahassee, FL...Albany, GA...Dothan, AL...Valdosta, GA...Panama City, FL...
2 % 25,860 3,029,968 Jacksonville, FL...Mobile, AL...Gainesville, FL...Pensacola, FL...Lakeside, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20210425 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 57,238 8,716,960 Atlanta, GA...Columbus, GA...Tallahassee, FL...Sandy Springs, GA...Roswell, GA...
5 % 40,204 5,521,535 Jacksonville, FL...Mobile, AL...Savannah, GA...Gainesville, FL...Macon, GA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20210425 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 57,238 8,716,960 Atlanta, GA...Columbus, GA...Tallahassee, FL...Sandy Springs, GA...Roswell, GA...
5 % 47,599 6,164,207 Jacksonville, FL...Mobile, AL...Savannah, GA...Gainesville, FL...Charleston, SC...
   SPC AC 250059

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0759 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

   Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA/GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE
   PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Locally severe thunderstorms will persist this evening across parts
   of Georgia, southeastern Alabama, and northern Florida including the
   Panhandle.  Large hail, damaging wind, and a tornado or two remain
   possible.

   ...Discussion...
   Overall severe risk has gradually waned across Tennessee/Mississippi
   and much of Alabama, in response to diurnal cooling underway in
   tandem with the eastward advance of the vort max now crossing the
   southern Appalachians.  A band of stronger storms -- with
   embedded/local severe risk -- persists across parts of
   western/northern Georgia, but should gradually diminish this
   evening.

   Farther south, storms are expected to maintain intensity a bit
   longer, where an outflow-reinforced surface boundary remains.  Along
   with lingering potential for a tornado or two, locally damaging
   winds and hail will remain possible with stronger storms, over the
   next few hours.  Here too, however, risk should gradually diminish
   through -- or shortly after -- midnight.

   ..Goss.. 04/25/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z