Houston, TX...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
236,686
14,302,220
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
SPC AC 171217
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0717 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021
Valid 171300Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are forecast across portions of the southern
Plains later this afternoon and overnight. Very large hail and a few
tornadoes will be concentrated across northwest Texas.
...West TX/Western OK...
An active period of severe weather is forecast for later today
across portions of west TX and southwest OK. The latest surface
analysis shows an outflow boundary from overnight thunderstorms
extending from southeast NM to near Midland, TX. This boundary is
not expected to move much farther south before weakening and
retreating northward by late morning. This will allow ample
low-level moisture to return northward into parts of west/northwest
TX by mid afternoon. Strong heating will eliminate the cap along
the dryline, resulting in rapid thunderstorm development this
afternoon from eastern NM into west TX near Lubbock. These storms
will move into an environment of very high instability (MLCAPE over
3000 J/kg), steep mid level lapse rates exceeding 8.0 C/km, and
effective shear values of 40-50 knots. Intense supercell structures
are expected, capable of very large hail. Low-level shear is not
forecast to be particularly strong, but given the unusually
favorable thermodynamic environment, a few tornadoes may result this
afternoon and evening along the western edge of greatest
boundary-layer moisture/CAPE - therefore have added a 10% tornado
area. Storms will expand in coverage through the evening, spreading
across the TX Panhandle and western OK with a continued risk of
large hail and damaging wind gusts.
...Southwest TX...
Strong instability will also be present along the dryline extending
southward toward the Rio Grande. While model guidance is less
confident in coverage/placement/timing of storms, there will be a
conditional risk of supercells capable of very large hail and
damaging winds. Have expanded the ENH risk slightly farther east to
account for recent HRRR runs that depict greater coverage of
convection.
...Southeast TX...
A cluster of supercell storms is affecting extreme southeast TX and
southwest LA this morning. Local VAD profiles show favorable
low-level shear for rotation, but weak winds aloft will limit the
overall severe threat. An isolated tornado or damaging wind gust
will be possible with this activity. Storms may also develop
southwestward toward Houston with a similar low-end risk of gusty
winds/brief tornadoes through the morning.
..Hart/Leitman.. 05/17/2021
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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