Pueblo, CO...Roswell, NM...Clovis, NM...Cimarron Hills, CO...Fountain, CO...
MARGINAL
145,973
15,925,709
Charlotte, NC...Denver, CO...Virginia Beach, VA...Colorado Springs, CO...Raleigh, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
16,131
42,519
No Major Population Center in Risk Area
2 %
30,313
1,701,142
Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Portsmouth, VA...Suffolk, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
186,281
13,227,285
Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Colorado Springs, CO...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
15,093
70,455
No Major Population Center in Risk Area
15 %
62,701
736,567
Pueblo, CO...Roswell, NM...Clovis, NM...Cimarron Hills, CO...Fountain, CO...
5 %
85,583
4,434,693
Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Amarillo, TX...Lakewood, CO...
SPC AC 291623
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Sat May 29 2021
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS....
...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail, brief tornadoes, and isolated severe wind
gusts are possible after about 2 PM MDT across portions of eastern
Colorado, eastern New Mexico and the western Texas/Oklahoma
panhandles.
...High Plains...
Morning visible satellite imagery shows clear skies and strong
heating occurring over most of the high plains of CO/NM. Dewpoints
are in the 40s to lower 50s, and forecast soundings for this
afternoon show MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg across the region,
along with a weakening cap. Model guidance is consistent with the
development of scattered thunderstorms over the foothills of CO/NM,
as well as initiation along the DCVZ/Palmer Ridge. Low level shear
is relatively weak over most areas, except parts of southeast CO
where backed low-level flow may result in a localized tornado
threat. Otherwise, organized multicell and occasional supercell
storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds this
afternoon and evening.
...VA/NC...
A surface cold front is sagging southward across southern VA toward
northern NC. A few thunderstorms have begun to form in the warm
sector over far southeast VA and northeast NC, where pockets of
heating and dewpoints near 70F are yielding MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg.
Vertical shear is not particularly strong in this area, but
moderately strong southwesterly winds above the surface will promote
gusty/damaging winds in the most intense cells this afternoon. An
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out if a storm can track along and
interact with the frontal boundary.
...South TX...
A long-lived MCS with occasional bowing segments is moving
southeastward across deep south TX. A risk of locally damaging wind
gusts will persist for another 1-2 hours before storms move
offshore. Please refer to MCD #799 for further details.
..Hart/Marsh.. 05/29/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
| 
)
