May 29, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat May 29 19:57:59 UTC 2021 (20210529 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20210529 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20210529 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 60,269 683,495 Pueblo, CO...Roswell, NM...Clovis, NM...Cimarron Hills, CO...Fountain, CO...
MARGINAL 134,034 14,385,092 Charlotte, NC...Denver, CO...Virginia Beach, VA...Colorado Springs, CO...Raleigh, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20210529 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 16,131 42,519 No Major Population Center in Risk Area
2 % 29,996 1,696,805 Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Portsmouth, VA...Suffolk, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20210529 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 171,424 11,672,463 Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Colorado Springs, CO...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20210529 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 15,093 70,455 No Major Population Center in Risk Area
15 % 60,298 722,630 Pueblo, CO...Roswell, NM...Clovis, NM...Cimarron Hills, CO...Fountain, CO...
5 % 78,515 4,089,035 Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
   SPC AC 291957

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0257 PM CDT Sat May 29 2021

   Valid 292000Z - 301200Z


   Widely scattered storms capable of producing large hail, brief
   tornadoes, and locally severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon
   and evening across portions of eastern Colorado, eastern New Mexico
   and the western Texas/Oklahoma panhandles.

   Aside from minor line adjustments, the major change with this
   outlook update has been to remove the MRGL risk from Deep South
   Texas, as storms have moved eastward into the Gulf/southward into
   northeastern Mexico.

   Otherwise, the rest of the outlook remains on track, with storms now
   developing in both remaining severe risk areas -- over the higher
   terrain of southern Wyoming/the Colorado Front Range, and southward
   across northern New Mexico, and also across southeastern Virginia
   and portions of the Carolinas along and ahead of the cold front. 
   Locally gusty winds capable of producing minor damage remain
   possible with a couple of the stronger Carolinas/Virginia storms,
   while large hail and damaging winds are expected locally over the
   High Plains area, along with potential for a tornado or two this
   afternoon and evening.

   ..Goss.. 05/29/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat May 29 2021/

   ...High Plains...
   Morning visible satellite imagery shows clear skies and strong
   heating occurring over most of the high plains of CO/NM.  Dewpoints
   are in the 40s to lower 50s, and forecast soundings for this
   afternoon show MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg across the region,
   along with a weakening cap.  Model guidance is consistent with the
   development of scattered thunderstorms over the foothills of CO/NM,
   as well as initiation along the DCVZ/Palmer Ridge.  Low level shear
   is relatively weak over most areas, except parts of southeast CO
   where backed low-level flow may result in a localized tornado
   threat.  Otherwise, organized multicell and occasional supercell
   storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds this
   afternoon and evening.

   A surface cold front is sagging southward across southern VA toward
   northern NC.  A few thunderstorms have begun to form in the warm
   sector over far southeast VA and northeast NC, where pockets of
   heating and dewpoints near 70F are yielding MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg. 
   Vertical shear is not particularly strong in this area, but
   moderately strong southwesterly winds above the surface will promote
   gusty/damaging winds in the most intense cells this afternoon.  An
   isolated tornado cannot be ruled out if a storm can track along and
   interact with the frontal boundary.

   ...South TX...
   A long-lived MCS with occasional bowing segments is moving
   southeastward across deep south TX.  A risk of locally damaging wind
   gusts will persist for another 1-2 hours before storms move
   offshore.  Please refer to MCD #799 for further details.