Jacksonville, FL...Milwaukee, WI...Kansas City, MO...Cleveland, OH...Minneapolis, MN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 201622
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021
Valid 201630Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EXTREME EASTERN IOWA ACROSS CHICAGOLAND TO NORTHWEST OHIO AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK...AND ALSO OVER PARTS OF
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected across the Midwest into the
lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley. Large hail, severe/damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. Damaging winds and a couple
of tornadoes are also possible across the Southeast.
...MO to OH...
Current water vapor loop shows a convectively augmented vort max
over northern MO. New thunderstorm development has occurred in the
past couple of hours in this region, with a corridor of rapid
heating/destabilization occurring to the east from northeast MO into
northern IL. Storms will likely intensify through the afternoon
along this axis, with the risk of damaging winds, large hail, and
isolated tornadoes. 12z CAM solutions differ on the handling of
this cluster, but the potential appears to exist for a longer-lived
bowing structure that would track all the way into northern OH this
evening. Please refer to MCD #1032 for short-term details.
...MN/WI/IA/IL...
Latest surface analysis shows a low over west-central MN. clearing
skies ahead of the low, along with southerly low-level winds, will
help to warm/moisten and destabilize this area by mid-afternoon. A
consensus of model guidance shows intense thunderstorm development
later today over southeast MN, southwest WI, and parts of
northern/eastern IA. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible
with these storms. A combination of remnant cloud debris and
outflow boundaries complicate the scenario, but also increase the
conditional risk of supercells and perhaps a few tornadoes this
evening. If the storms over MO do not materialize into a
longer-lived bow, then this area of storms may persist for several
hours and track eastward across the ENH risk area.
...GA/SC/NC...
The remnants of Claudette continue to affect parts of GA and the
Carolinas today, with relatively strong low-level winds from
southeast GA into southern SC. Considerable daytime heating and
ample low level moisture will provide favorable thermodynamics for a
few intense afternoon thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts
and a few tornadoes.
...Southeast CO into southern KS late tonight...
A surface cold front will extend from eastern CO into southern KS
tonight, providing the focus for a few evening/overnight
thunderstorms. Sufficient CAPE/shear along this zone will pose a
risk of hail in the strongest storms.
..Hart/Bentley.. 06/20/2021
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