SPC AC 241628

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1128 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

   Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A corridor of severe weather (including destructive hail, severe
   wind and a few tornadoes) is possible today into tonight near the
   Kansas/Nebraska line, eastward over northern Missouri.

   ...Northeast KS into northwest MO...
   A large MCS is moving slowly eastward this morning across northern
   MO into central IL.  The outflow boundary from this system extends
   from west-central KS into central MO.  Very moist and unstable air
   is present to the south of the boundary, with dewpoints in the mid
   70s and potential MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg later today.  This
   boundary is expected to lift northward this afternoon to roughly the
   I-70 corridor of northeast KS (although the ongoing convection over
   southeast KS lends some uncertainty to afternoon boundary position).
    Scattered supercell storms are expected to develop in vicinity of
   the boundary by late afternoon, tracking eastward into northwest MO
   this evening.  Model guidance suggests that the low-level jet will
   strengthen considerably during the evening, with forecast soundings
   showing very favorable hodographs for supercells capable of very
   large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.  Considered adding
   at 10% tornado threat area, but will defer to 20z update when
   eventual position of the boundary is better defined.

   Storms are expected to congeal into a bowing complex through the
   evening, affecting portions of north-central MO with the threat of
   rather widespread damaging winds and hail.

   ...Western and Central KS...
   A well-defined surface low is forecast to become established over
   central KS today, with considerable wrap-around low-level moisture
   in place over much of western and northern KS.  This will likely
   lead to scattered intense thunderstorms later today.  Very large
   hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats.  Have
   adjusted the orientation of the SLGT/ENH areas to better reflect the
   surface low position, and where CAM consensus shows highest
   confidence in storm coverage.

   ...Eastern NM/TX Panhandle...
   A deeply mixed boundary layer will develop this afternoon over much
   of eastern NM and the TX Panhandle, where scattered high-based
   thunderstorms are forecast.  Locally gusty/damaging wind gusts are
   possible in the strongest cores.

   ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/24/2021

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