Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
81,995
12,423,541
Detroit, MI...Oklahoma City, OK...Toledo, OH...Warren, MI...Sterling Heights, MI...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 080053
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Tue Sep 07 2021
Valid 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST...SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND SOUTHEAST AZ/SOUTHWEST NM...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across
parts of the Midwest, southern Great Plains, and far southeast
Arizona/southwest New Mexico.
...Lower MI to IL...
The threat for isolated severe hail and damaging winds may persist
for a couple more hours. Leading activity has largely weakened over
the past few hours after shifting away from the instability axis
into lesser MLCAPE/greater MLCIN. Attempts at redevelopment along
the surface cold front have occurred in northeast IL to central
Lower MI. The longevity of the severe threat in MI will likely be
limited by a substantially cooler boundary layer. An upstream feed
of larger buoyancy (sampled by 00Z Lincoln IL sounding) should
support somewhat longer lingering of isolated severe potential in
east-central IL into northwest/west-central IN.
...Western OK to southeast KS...
Thunderstorms appear to be peaking in coverage along the
southward-sagging trailing cold front. Moderate to large buoyancy
(per 00Z Norman sounding) exists within a confined plume in the
central OK to southeast KS portion of the frontal zone, with weaker
MLCAPE/drier boundary layer farther west. Isolated severe wind and
hail will remain possible for a couple more hours before updraft
intensities wane after dusk. Sporadic elevated convection may
persist tonight farther south in OK to the Ozarks within a weak
low-level warm advection regime, but severe potential should be
minimal.
...Southeast AZ/southwest NM...
A few discrete cells may pose a threat for isolated severe wind and
hail within a belt of favorable mid-level speed shear and a
well-mixed boundary layer. The degree of shear (effective values
around 40 kt per 00Z Tucson and El Paso soundings) will likely
maintain discrete character until convection weakens after dusk.
..Grams.. 09/08/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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