Springfield, MO...Waco, TX...Killeen, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Tyler, TX...
2 %
125,804
4,124,297
Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Columbia, MO...Round Rock, TX...College Station, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE
32,146
3,082,972
Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Norman, OK...Lawton, OK...Broken Arrow, OK...
45 %
19,872
2,687,395
Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Norman, OK...Broken Arrow, OK...Edmond, OK...
Austin, TX...Columbia, MO...Tyler, TX...Round Rock, TX...College Station, TX...
SPC AC 101616
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021
Valid 101630Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes, widespread damaging wind gusts, and very large hail are
forecast this afternoon and evening for portions of Oklahoma and
north Texas.
...OK...
An intense and fast-moving shortwave trough over western NM will
pivot into the southern Plains this afternoon. Ahead of this
trough, a surface low is forecast to rapidly deepen over western
North TX and track northeastward into central OK this evening.
Strong and strengthening low-level wind fields in the warm sector of
the low will transport Gulf moisture northward, with dewpoints in
the mid-upper 60s expected across the region. A combination of
ample sunshine and slowing cooling mid-level temperatures will yield
MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg by peak heating, with a slowly
weakening cap.
Current indications are that storms will begin to rapidly intensify
after 21z near the surface low in southwest OK. Some of this
activity will be north of the associated cold front, with a primary
risk of large hail. However, morning CAM solutions continue to
suggest that discrete supercell development is possible near the low
and along the trailing dryline. These storms will be in an
environment of rapidly strengthening low/mid level wind fields and
vertical shear, steep lapse rates, and intense large-scale forcing.
Forecast soundings/hodographs in the warm sector would favor the
potential for strong tornadoes, very large hail, and significant
damaging winds as storms track across central OK - mainly after
dark.
Storms will become more numerous as they race northeastward into
eastern OK during the evening. A few discrete supercells may
persist, along with an increasing threat of QLCS-associated wind
damage and tornadoes. It appears likely the storms will begin to
weaken as they move into parts of western MO/AR around midnight.
...TX...
Farther south, model consensus shows scattered thunderstorms
developing this evening along the dryline across northern and
central TX - especially as the cold front overtakes the dryline.
Strong forcing aloft and strengthening wind fields will pose a risk
of a scattered supercells along this corridor, capable of a few
tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.
...MN...
An upper low over MN will move slowly eastward today, helping to
initiate scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the Arrowhead
region. Extensive low clouds in this area will limit daytime
heating and destabilization. However, a few of the low-topped
storms may be capable of hail or brief tornadoes for a few hours
this afternoon. Storms should track northward and into Canada
around dusk, ending the threat.
..Hart/Lyons.. 10/10/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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