Springfield, MO...Waco, TX...Killeen, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Tyler, TX...
Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Columbia, MO...Round Rock, TX...College Station, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Norman, OK...Lawton, OK...Broken Arrow, OK...
Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Norman, OK...Broken Arrow, OK...Edmond, OK...
Austin, TX...Columbia, MO...Tyler, TX...Round Rock, TX...College Station, TX...
SPC AC 101950
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021
Valid 102000Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...
Tornadoes, widespread damaging wind gusts, and very large hail are
forecast this afternoon and evening for portions of Oklahoma and
Only minor changes have been made to the Slight risk area across
northern MN with the 20z update. Slight risk probabilities have been
nudged southward a small amount based on ongoing convection this
afternoon. Hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through
early evening with WW 516 in effect until 02z.
The previous outlook remains on track and no changes have been made
with the 20z update. Initial supercells are expected to initiate
over southwest OK near the surface low by around 22z and track
east/northeast toward central OK (including the OKC metro area) by
00z. Very large hail, damaging gusts and potentially significant
(EF2+) tornadoes will be possible. As the surface cold front starts
to surge south/southeast this evening, upward development into a
fast-moving QLCS capable of widespread damaging wind gusts,
tornadoes and hail will sweep across central/eastern OK (including
the Tulsa metro area by around 02-03z). For more details on the
short term severe risk reference MCD 1820.
Scattered storms will also develop southward along the surface
dryline/cold front across northern/central TX by 23-00z (and the
Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex by around 01-02z). Initial supercells
may evolve into a broken line with eastward extent through the
evening, but large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes all will
be possible with this activity.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021/
An intense and fast-moving shortwave trough over western NM will
pivot into the southern Plains this afternoon. Ahead of this
trough, a surface low is forecast to rapidly deepen over western
North TX and track northeastward into central OK this evening.
Strong and strengthening low-level wind fields in the warm sector of
the low will transport Gulf moisture northward, with dewpoints in
the mid-upper 60s expected across the region. A combination of
ample sunshine and slowing cooling mid-level temperatures will yield
MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg by peak heating, with a slowly
Current indications are that storms will begin to rapidly intensify
after 21z near the surface low in southwest OK. Some of this
activity will be north of the associated cold front, with a primary
risk of large hail. However, morning CAM solutions continue to
suggest that discrete supercell development is possible near the low
and along the trailing dryline. These storms will be in an
environment of rapidly strengthening low/mid level wind fields and
vertical shear, steep lapse rates, and intense large-scale forcing.
Forecast soundings/hodographs in the warm sector would favor the
potential for strong tornadoes, very large hail, and significant
damaging winds as storms track across central OK - mainly after
Storms will become more numerous as they race northeastward into
eastern OK during the evening. A few discrete supercells may
persist, along with an increasing threat of QLCS-associated wind
damage and tornadoes. It appears likely the storms will begin to
weaken as they move into parts of western MO/AR around midnight.
Farther south, model consensus shows scattered thunderstorms
developing this evening along the dryline across northern and
central TX - especially as the cold front overtakes the dryline.
Strong forcing aloft and strengthening wind fields will pose a risk
of a scattered supercells along this corridor, capable of a few
tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.
An upper low over MN will move slowly eastward today, helping to
initiate scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the Arrowhead
region. Extensive low clouds in this area will limit daytime
heating and destabilization. However, a few of the low-topped
storms may be capable of hail or brief tornadoes for a few hours
this afternoon. Storms should track northward and into Canada
around dusk, ending the threat.
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