Virginia Beach, VA...Wichita, KS...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Portsmouth, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
16,977
2,222,215
Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Portsmouth, VA...Suffolk, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
18,708
2,417,596
Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Portsmouth, VA...Wilmington, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
48,097
3,814,635
Virginia Beach, VA...Wichita, KS...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Portsmouth, VA...
SPC AC 221946
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021
Valid 222000Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA/FAR SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated wind damage, marginally
severe hail, and a brief tornado will remain possible across eastern
North Carolina and far southeast Virginia this afternoon. Hail may
also occur across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma
late tonight.
...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to either Marginal Risk area. Isolated
strong to severe storms capable of producing occasional hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado will remain possible
this afternoon across eastern NC and far southeastern VA ahead of a
cold front. Isolated hail may also occur with elevated storms late
tonight into early Saturday morning across parts of southern KS and
northern OK.
..Gleason.. 10/22/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021/
...Eastern NC/southeastern VA this afternoon...
A couple of cold front segments (one across northern NC and another
across central Chesapeake Bay) will continue to sag southeastward
through the afternoon, as embedded speed maxima rotate eastward
through the base of a deep closed low over James Bay. Surface
temperatures warming into the 75-80 F range and boundary-layer
dewpoints in the mid 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
across eastern NC and extreme southeastern VA this afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid
afternoon (18-20z) along the frontal segments and differential
heating zone near the southeastern VA/NC border, and storms will
subsequently spread east-northeastward. The moderate buoyancy will
combine with effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt and effective SRH of
100-150 m2/s2 to support isolated supercells with an attendant
threat for isolated wind damage, as well as isolated hail near 1"
diameter, and perhaps a brief/weak tornado.
...Southeastern KS/northeastern OK border region early Saturday...
Low-level moisture will continue to increase from south-to-north
from TX into OK, in response to weak lee cyclogenesis across the
southern/central High Plains. Elevated convection this morning
across northwest and central OK is evidence of this moisture
increase above the surface, and an increase in elevated storms is
expected overnight in conjunction with strengthening warm advection
and a southwesterly low-level jet of 35-40 kt. MUCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg, midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km, and effective bulk shear of
35-40 kt will support some potential for at least transient
supercell structures capable of producing isolated hail near 1"
diameter.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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