Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 230535
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Large hail is expected with thunderstorms later tonight across
portions of the central Plains/lower Missouri Valley region.
...Central Plains/Lower MO Valley...
Strong short-wave trough is forecast to progress across the Great
Basin into CO/NM later this evening before ejecting into the central
High Plains by the end of the period. Southwesterly LLJ will be
focused across northern OK into southeast KS at sunrise, and this
should aid early-day thunderstorms, some of which could produce
marginally severe hail. However, LLJ is expected to weaken during
the day before refocusing after sunset over eastern KS/western MO.
Lee surface cyclone will migrate from southeast CO into
south-central KS during the overnight hours and this will ensure
strong low-level warm advection reorients itself across northern
KS/MO during the latter half of the period. Forecast soundings
suggest strong boundary-layer heating across the southern High
Plains may result in one or two surface-based storms across the TX
South Plains, north to near the surface low. However, this activity
should die quickly with loss of heating. Of more concern will be
significant moistening atop the boundary layer into the warm
advection zone along the nose of the LLJ. Forecast soundings suggest
strong MUCAPE, in excess of 3000 J/kg, will develop near the warm
frontal zone after 24/00z. Elevated thunderstorms will evolve along
this corridor by 03z and hail is expected with any supercells that
mature across the lower MO Valley. A cluster of strong/severe
thunderstorms is expected to propagate across northern MO toward
central IL by daybreak Sunday.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 10/23/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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