Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 231627
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT FROM
NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE INTO NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IA...
...SUMMARY...
Large hail is expected with thunderstorms late tonight across
portions of the central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley region.
...Northeast KS/southeast NE to northern MO area overnight...
Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning over southwest MO
and vicinity in association with low-level warm advection on the
nose of a 40 kt west-southwesterly low-level jet. Buoyancy, lapse
rates, and vertical shear have remained marginal for large
hail-producing storms through the overnight and morning hours, and
any hail threat should diminish gradually by early afternoon as warm
advection weakens. The focus for additional thunderstorm
development will then shift to early tonight as warm advection and
the low-level jet again strengthen. A continued influx of low-level
moisture from TX will contribute to destabilization in the warm
sector through the afternoon. The warm sector should largely remain
capped through the afternoon, aside from a low probability of
isolated, surface-based storm development along the dryline where
deep mixing could sufficiently remove convective inhibition.
The main storm threat will start tonight in the 02-06z time frame,
as a southwesterly low-level jet strengthens to near 50 kt and warm
advection likewise increases. The deepest lift and parcel
saturation is expected a little north of the surface warm front
(near I-70 tonight) and along the northeast edge of the steepest
midlevel lapse rates, with clusters of elevated storms expected to
spread eastward and persist through the early morning hours.
Effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt, modest hodograph curvature within
the storm inflow layer, and MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg will support
the potential for embedded/elevated supercells capable of producing
occasional large hail up to about 1.75" diameter overnight.
..Thompson/Gleason.. 10/23/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
| 
)
