Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
5,576
147,834
Hutchinson, KS...Great Bend, KS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 232000
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021
Valid 232000Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Large hail is expected with thunderstorms late tonight across
portions of the central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley region.
...Central Plains through Lower Missouri Valley...
Some chance exists for an isolated severe storm or two to develop
across south central KS near triple point region and southwest along
dryline this afternoon. Primary severe threat is expected to evolve
later this evening within warm advection regime north of warm front
from northeast KS into southeast NE and northern MO, with isolated
large hail the main threat.
..Dial.. 10/23/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021/
...Northeast KS/southeast NE to northern MO area overnight...
Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning over southwest MO
and vicinity in association with low-level warm advection on the
nose of a 40 kt west-southwesterly low-level jet. Buoyancy, lapse
rates, and vertical shear have remained marginal for large
hail-producing storms through the overnight and morning hours, and
any hail threat should diminish gradually by early afternoon as warm
advection weakens. The focus for additional thunderstorm
development will then shift to early tonight as warm advection and
the low-level jet again strengthen. A continued influx of low-level
moisture from TX will contribute to destabilization in the warm
sector through the afternoon. The warm sector should largely remain
capped through the afternoon, aside from a low probability of
isolated, surface-based storm development along the dryline where
deep mixing could sufficiently remove convective inhibition.
The main storm threat will start tonight in the 02-06z time frame,
as a southwesterly low-level jet strengthens to near 50 kt and warm
advection likewise increases. The deepest lift and parcel
saturation is expected a little north of the surface warm front
(near I-70 tonight) and along the northeast edge of the steepest
midlevel lapse rates, with clusters of elevated storms expected to
spread eastward and persist through the early morning hours.
Effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt, modest hodograph curvature within
the storm inflow layer, and MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg will support
the potential for embedded/elevated supercells capable of producing
occasional large hail up to about 1.75" diameter overnight.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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