Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
7,197
46,692
Elk City, OK...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
44,950
3,512,565
Kansas City, MO...Lincoln, NE...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...
SPC AC 240047
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Large hail is expected with thunderstorms late tonight across
portions of the central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley region.
...01Z Update...
...Northeast KS/Southeast NE/Far Southwest IA/Northern MO...
Recent surface analysis places a low near DDC, with a warm front
extending east-northeastward from this low across southern KS.
Additionally, area VAD profiles and SPC mesoanalysis continue to
show increasing low-level flow throughout the warm sector to the
south of this warm front. This low-level flow is expected to
continue strengthening as the surface low slowly moves
northeastward. Persistent warm-air advection along this frontal zone
will promote the development of elevated thunderstorms in an arc
from the eastern KS/NE border vicinity eastward across northern MO.
Mid-level lapse rates (sampled well by the 00Z TOP sounding) are
expected to steep enough to support moderate buoyancy and robust
persistent updrafts. Effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt and modest
hodograph curvature within the storm inflow layer will support the
potential for embedded/elevated supercells capable of producing
occasional large hail tonight.
...Far East-Central TX Panhandle/Far Western OK...
Lone supercell in Wheeler and Collingsworth Counties in the far
east-central TX Panhandle may persist for the hour or so before
nocturnal stabilization leads to weakening. Until then, isolated
hail and/or an isolated damaging wind gust may occur.
..Mosier.. 10/24/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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