Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Richmond, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
17,739
2,132,299
Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Newport News, VA...Hampton, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
32,696
9,703,996
Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Richmond, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 290545
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PATS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms may occur today over parts of
coastal North Carolina into the Mid-Atlantic. Marginally severe wind
gusts will be the primary threat.
...Eastern North Carolina/Mid-Atlantic...
An upper-level low will move eastward across the Tennessee Valley
today as southwest mid-level flow remains in place over much of the
Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a warm front will move
north-northeastward from eastern North Carolina this morning to
Maryland this afternoon. A narrow corridor of maximized low-level
moisture will be located near the warm front with surface dewpoints
in the lower to mid 60s F extending about 100 statute miles inland.
Thunderstorm development will be possible near the front during the
day as surface temperatures warm. Although instability will remain
weak, RAP forecast soundings along the Mid-Atlantic Coast have 0-6
km shear in the 70 to 80 knot range this afternoon. In addition, 0-3
km storm relative helicity is forecast to be near 300 m2/s2. This
suggests that a marginal tornado threat could develop with rotating
cells that interact with the front. An isolated wind-damage threat
may develop, but any severe threat should remain very localized.
..Broyles/Bentley.. 10/29/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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