Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Newport News, VA...Hampton, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
10,158
2,124,049
Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Newport News, VA...Hampton, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
11,444
2,549,892
Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Newport News, VA...Hampton, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 291954
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible this afternoon over
parts of eastern Virginia into the Delmarva region. Marginally
severe wind gusts should be the primary threat.
...20Z Update...
Primary change with this update was to remove severe probabilities
behind a broken line of low-topped convection over eastern VA.
Isolated strong/gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado will remain
possible this afternoon along/south of a front draped across the
Mid-Atlantic. For more information on the near term severe threat
across this region, see Mesoscale Discussion 1928.
..Gleason.. 10/29/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021/
...NC into Delmarva...
A large upper low is present today over the TN/OH Valleys, with an
intense mid-level jet nosing across the Carolinas into southeast VA.
Meanwhile at the surface, a warm front is lifting northward across
the Delmarva region. A narrow axis of relatively moist and
marginally unstable air immediately south of the warm front will
pose a low risk of surface-based rotating storms this afternoon.
Locally gusty winds or a brief tornado appear to be the main
threats. Please refer to MCD #1927 for further mesoscale details.
...Other...
After 32 years of federal service, and 23 years of tenure as a
meteorologist at the Storm Prediction Center, Greg Dial is retiring
today. He has issued thousands of life-saving forecasts, outlooks,
and watches during that time. We thank Greg for his skills and
friendship, and wish him all the best.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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