Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 300036
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible this evening from parts of the
Mid-Atlantic northeastward into far southern New England. Isolated
storms may also develop tonight in parts of northwest California and
southeast Oregon. No severe threat is expected.
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level low will move slowly northeastward across the
southern Appalachians this evening and tonight as a shortwave trough
moves northward along the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, an
associated warm front will move northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic
coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible this evening in the
vicinity of the front and southward across a moist airmass in parts
of Maryland and northeastern Virginia. Elsewhere, a few
thunderstorms will be possible across northwest California and
southwest Oregon as an upper-level trough approaches tonight.
Instability across the continental United States will be too weak
for a severe threat.
..Broyles.. 10/30/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
| 
)
