Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 301934
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021
Valid 302000Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
MA THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with gusty winds may affect eastern Massachusetts
through early evening.
...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track and no changes are needed
with the 20z update. Forecast guidance continues to indicate a small
window of opportunity through early evening for a few strong
thunderstorms to develop. Strong wind gusts will be the main hazard
with this activity.
..Leitman.. 10/30/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Sat Oct 30 2021/
...New England...
A vigorous shortwave trough is currently along the Carolina coast.
This system will track northward, with an associated deepening
surface low approaching the coast of southeast New England later
this afternoon and early evening. It currently appears the low will
move into RI or eastern MA, with very strong southeasterly low-level
winds in the warm sector over Cape Cod. This may be coincident with
a cluster of thunderstorms indicated by several CAM solutions.
Forecast soundings suggest the near-ground stable layer will be
rather shallow, with the potential for isolated strong/severe gusts
in the most organized cells. It appears this threat will primarily
be during the 21-03z period.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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