Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 311946
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021
Valid 312000Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the continental United
States today and tonight.
...20z Update...
The previous outlooks remains unchanged with the 20z update.
Isolated thunderstorms have been noted across southern ID this
afternoon. Additional isolated thunderstorms remain possible
southeastward into northern UT/CO and southwest WY.
..Leitman.. 10/31/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Sun Oct 31 2021/
...ID/WY/UT/CO...
Morning water vapor imagery shows an upper low over OR, with a
series of shortwave troughs tracking around the base of the low from
northern CA into the Great Basin. These features, along with cold
temperatures aloft and some daytime heating, will promote the risk
of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through tonight over
parts of southern ID into northern UT/CO and southwest WY.
Elsewhere across the CONUS, organized thunderstorm activity is not
anticipated.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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