Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 011238
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Mon Nov 01 2021
Valid 011300Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States today and tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Cyclonic flow aloft will persist across the northern 2/3rds of the
CONUS, with the shortwave trough currently moving into the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest expected to reinforce the cyclonic flow already
in place. Cold mid-level temperatures attendant to this shortwave
will support shallow buoyancy, and a few isolated lightning flashes
are possible within the lake-effect showers expected across eastern
portions of the Upper MI today/tonight. Additionally, the
progression of this shortwave will encourage a southward surge of
cold and dry continental air across the northern/central Plains and
upper MS Valley, augmenting the stable conditions already in place.
Modest shortwave ridging is forecast to move through the southern
stream across the Four Corners into the central/southern High
Plains. Low-level flow will strengthen ahead of this ridging across
West TX, with just enough warm-air advection to support isolated
lightning flashes tonight into Tuesday morning across northwest TX
and southwest/south-central OK.
Lastly, a subtle shortwave trough is expected to move from the
northern Great Basin through the central Rockies. Cold mid-level
temperatures will support weak buoyancy and the potential for a few
lightning flashes within the deeper/more persistent storms.
..Mosier.. 11/01/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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