Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 011936
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Mon Nov 01 2021
Valid 012000Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
through tonight.
...20Z Outlook Update...
No appreciable changes have been made. Generally dry and/or stable
conditions prevail across much of the U.S., with low probabilities
for weak thunderstorm activity generally limited to a narrow
corridor across the southern Great Plains Red River Valley into
Ozark Plateau, a small portion of the Colorado Rockies and perhaps
the eastern Lake Superior and northern Lake Huron vicinities.
..Kerr.. 11/01/2021
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Mon Nov 01 2021/
...OK/AR...
Scattered thunderstorm activity has developed this morning over
eastern OK, in a region of low-level warm advection and weak
elevated CAPE (generally below 250 J/kg). CAM guidance suggests
this activity may persist for a few more hours and possibly moving
into northwest AR before weakening.
Otherwise, the ongoing forecast is on track with no changes made.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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