Nov 2, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Nov 2 05:55:42 UTC 2021 (20211102 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20211102 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211102 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211102 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211102 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211102 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 020555

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1255 AM CDT Tue Nov 02 2021

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
   Tuesday through Tuesday night.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will move east from the Great Lakes into the
   Northeast today. Farther west, mid-level ridging will build across
   the western CONUS. On the eastern edge of this ridging, a shortwave
   will move from the Rockies into the southern Plains this afternoon
   and overnight. At the surface an area of strong high pressure will
   slowly drift southeast across the central CONUS and into the eastern
   CONUS. A cold front has pushed better low-level moisture off the
   Atlantic and Gulf coasts. The only exception is across southern
   Texas where some better low-level moisture remains as observed by
   the 00Z CRP, BRO, and DRT RAOBs. 

   ...Texas Davis Mountains and Big Bend Region...
   Temperatures are expected to warm into the low 70s south of a cold
   front in West Texas this afternoon. Some low-level moisture
   advection is also anticipated in this region which should lead to
   dewpoints around 60 degrees during the afternoon. This
   warming/moistening boundary layer should lead to MLCAPE around 500
   to 1000 J/kg this afternoon. Mid-level flow aloft is forecast to be
   around 30 to 35 knots which would provide an amply sheared
   environment for supercells if any storms initiate. However, forcing
   appears nebulous at this time on most guidance. An isolated
   supercell is possible during the afternoon/early evening where
   orographic enhancement increases thunderstorm likelihood. Due to the
   relatively weak instability and a conditional storm threat, no
   probabilities were warranted at this time. 

   ...Northern Texas into Oklahoma...
   Elevated convection is anticipated tonight in a zone of isentropic
   ascent near the Red River. However, instability appears weak.
   Therefore, while lightning is expected, severe convection is not
   anticipated.

   ..Bentley.. 11/02/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z