Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 030046
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Tue Nov 02 2021
Valid 030100Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the continental United
States this evening through tonight.
...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move southeastward across the central
Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region this evening. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough across parts of
the central Great Lakes region due to steep mid-level lapse rates
and strong large-scale ascent. Isolated to scattered elevated
thunderstorms will also be possible tonight in a warm advection
regime across the southern Plains. Instability will remain weak in
both the north-central states and southern Plains. For this reason,
no severe weather is expected across the continental United States
this evening or tonight.
..Broyles.. 11/03/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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