Nov 3, 2021 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 3 12:31:08 UTC 2021 (20211103 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20211103 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211103 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211103 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211103 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211103 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 031231

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0731 AM CDT Wed Nov 03 2021

   Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
   contiguous United States today and tonight.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   Cyclonic flow aloft will persist across much of the central and
   eastern CONUS today. Several shortwave troughs are forecast to move
   through this more expansive upper troughing, including the
   southern-stream shortwave currently moving through the southern High
   Plains. This system is expected to continue progressing
   southeastward throughout the day, and will likely reach the TX Hill
   Country by early Thursday morning. 

   Recent surface analysis places a cold front from just north of DRT
   eastward through the Houston area and off the upper TX Coast. This
   front is expected to push southward throughout the day, with both
   ascent along the front as well as ascent attendant to the
   approaching shortwave contributing to a relatively broad area of
   showers and thunderstorms from the TX Hill Country across much of
   central and southeast TX. Much of this activity will be behind the
   front amid modest buoyancy, but a few pre-frontal storms are
   possible across from the middle/lower Rio Grande Valley to the lower
   TX Coast. Despite relatively moist low levels, warm temperatures
   aloft will temper the overall buoyancy. This area will also be
   displaced south of the stronger flow aloft, although some modest
   shear may result from the veering of the low-level easterly flow to
   westerly in the mid levels. These environmental conditions could
   support a few strong storms, but overall storm intensity/coverage
   will be limited.

   Elsewhere, a strong shortwave trough will move across the northern
   CA/Pacific Northwest coast this evening and tonight, with a few
   lightning flashes possible within the primary frontal band.

   ..Mosier.. 11/03/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z