Nov 3, 2021 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 3 15:57:15 UTC 2021 (20211103 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20211103 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211103 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211103 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211103 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211103 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 031557

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1057 AM CDT Wed Nov 03 2021

   Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
   States today and tonight.

   ...TX/LA...
   Morning water vapor loop shows a broad upper trough over the eastern
   US, with a shortwave trough digging southeastward across NM into TX.
   Lift ahead of this feature has been resulting in rather widespread
   showers and scattered thunderstorms over much of central and east
   TX.  This activity is along and north of a southward moving cold
   front.  The air mass ahead of the front is relatively moist and
   unstable, with a corridor of moderate afternoon CAPE values expected
   from the Houston area southwestward into south TX.  Morning CAM
   solutions indicate that scattered elevated convection will remain
   atop the stable post-frontal air.  However, one or two solutions do
   show the possibility of a strong storm forming along the front later
   today.  If this can occur, gusty winds and hail would be possible. 
   However, given the considerable uncertainty of this outcome, will
   maintain less-than-5% severe probabilities in the forecast.

   Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of FL this
   afternoon, and along the OR coast this evening and tonight.  No
   severe storms are anticipated with this activity.

   ..Hart.. 11/03/2021

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