SPC AC 032022

   Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0322 PM CDT Wed Nov 03 2021

   Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS...

   CORRECTED UPDATE TIME

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the lower Rio Grande Valley
   and adjacent portions of Deep South Texas late this afternoon into
   tonight, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind.

   ...20Z Outlook Update...
   In the presence of modestly steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse
   rates, daytime heating within a moistening boundary-layer appears to
   be contributing to moderately large mixed-layer CAPE (up to around
   1500 J/kg) to the south of a front advancing southward into middle
   Texas coastal areas and Deep South Texas.  This is occurring as one
   short wave impulse, within digging larger-scale mid-level troughing,
   slowly approaches the lower Rio Grande Valley.  

   The front might provide one focus for intensifying thunderstorm
   development late this afternoon and evening, while additional
   thunderstorms form and propagate southeastward off the higher
   terrain to the west of the Rio Grande River.  Given the available
   instability, and increasing forcing for ascent with the approaching
   short wave, there appears potential for considerable upscale
   convective growth across the lower Rio Grande Valley and adjacent
   portions of Deep South Texas through mid/late evening. 

   Although low-level wind fields are weak, and deep-layer shear may
   remain fairly modest at best, it is possible that the overall
   environment this evening may gradually become conducive to
   organizing convection with the potential to produce strong wind
   gusts, particularly near and south of the Rio Grande River.
   Otherwise, profiles may be marginally conducive to a risk for severe
   hail in initially stronger storm development late this afternoon and
   evening.

   ..Kerr.. 11/03/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT Wed Nov 03 2021/

   ...TX/LA...
   Morning water vapor loop shows a broad upper trough over the eastern
   US, with a shortwave trough digging southeastward across NM into TX.
   Lift ahead of this feature has been resulting in rather widespread
   showers and scattered thunderstorms over much of central and east
   TX.  This activity is along and north of a southward moving cold
   front.  The air mass ahead of the front is relatively moist and
   unstable, with a corridor of moderate afternoon CAPE values expected
   from the Houston area southwestward into south TX.  Morning CAM
   solutions indicate that scattered elevated convection will remain
   atop the stable post-frontal air.  However, one or two solutions do
   show the possibility of a strong storm forming along the front later
   today.  If this can occur, gusty winds and hail would be possible. 
   However, given the considerable uncertainty of this outcome, will
   maintain less-than-5% severe probabilities in the forecast.

   Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of FL this
   afternoon, and along the OR coast this evening and tonight.  No
   severe storms are anticipated with this activity.

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