Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Harlingen, TX...Mission, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
29,312
2,099,844
Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Harlingen, TX...Mission, TX...
SPC AC 040010
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0710 PM CDT Wed Nov 03 2021
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe hail or wind may occur over Deep South Texas this
evening and tonight.
...Deep South TX...
A cold front continues to surge southward over the area. Elevated
showers and thunderstorms exist mainly north of the boundary, and
isolated storms have shown signs of marginal hail.
The air mass ahead of the front remains unstable, with around 1500
J/kg MLCAPE. Cool midlevel temperatures are also aiding instability,
but flow around 500 mb is modest at 20-25 kt.
Deep-layer effective shear is maximized near the boundary, where
boundary-layer winds are east/northeasterly. This, in combination
with sufficient westerlies aloft, may continue to support
periodically strong storms, a few of which may produce marginal
hail. Severe gusts appear unlikely, assuming most of the convection
remains north of the front. However, will maintain a small 5% wind
area for extreme southern areas.
..Jewell.. 11/04/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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