SPC AC 040456

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1156 PM CDT Wed Nov 03 2021

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
   today.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A large-scale upper trough will exist over the eastern CONUS, with
   modest midlevel southwesterlies extending southward into the Gulf of
   Mexico. At the surface, high pressure will extend from the Northeast
   into the southern Plains, with northerly winds over the Gulf of
   Mexico and FL. 

   Moderate levels of moisture will remain over FL despite the
   northeasterly surface winds, with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints  over
   far southern FL. While heating may result in up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE
   during the day, winds below 500 mb will remain rather weak. In
   addition, lapse rates aloft will be poor. As such, severe weather is
   not forecast, but a few afternoon storms are possible, with
   increasing coverage over the eastern Gulf of Mexico overnight as a
   low-latitude shortwave trough approaches from the west.

   ..Jewell.. 11/04/2021

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