Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 041558
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CDT Thu Nov 04 2021
Valid 041630Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S.
today.
...FL...
A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern CONUS today,
with a southern stream jet max tracking across the Gulf of Mexico
toward FL. Increasing large-scale lift ahead of this feature will
result in expanding coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the
southern FL peninsula this afternoon and tonight. Ample low-level
moisture and MLCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg will support a few
robust thunderstorms will heavy rain and perhaps gusty winds.
However, low and mid-level winds are rather weak today. This should
limit the risk of severe storm activity to very isolated and brief
in nature.
Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes are possible this afternoon over
the mountains of northern ID and vicinity. This threat should end
by 00z.
..Hart.. 11/04/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
| 
)
