Nov 4, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Nov 4 19:42:10 UTC 2021 (20211104 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20211104 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211104 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211104 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211104 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211104 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 041942

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0242 PM CDT Thu Nov 04 2021

   Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S.
   today.

   ...20Z Outlook Update..,
   Low-level convergence still appears relatively weak, but latest
   satellite imagery suggests that the initiation of at least one or
   two thunderstorms is possible by 22-23Z over interior southern
   Florida, within a confluent low-level regime south of Lake
   Okeechobee into areas east of Fort Myers.  This is where insolation
   within a seasonably moist boundary layer has contributed to CAPE on
   the order of 1000-1500 J/kg.  Beneath moderate to strong
   southwesterly flow in the 500-300 mb layer, deep-layer shear is
   strong, but it is still not obvious that storms will be able to pose
   more than a small to perhaps marginally severe hail, and locally
   strong, but sub-severe, wind gust risk.  As a result severe
   probabilities are being maintained at less that 5 percent.  

   Otherwise, this activity seems likely to weaken after dark, with the
   loss of daytime heating, and probabilities for thunderstorm activity
   over inland areas of central and southern Florida appear generally
   low.

   ..Kerr.. 11/04/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Thu Nov 04 2021/

   ...FL...
   A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern CONUS today,
   with a southern stream jet max tracking across the Gulf of Mexico
   toward FL.  Increasing large-scale lift ahead of this feature will
   result in expanding coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the
   southern FL peninsula this afternoon and tonight.  Ample low-level
   moisture and MLCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg will support a few
   robust thunderstorms will heavy rain and perhaps gusty winds. 
   However, low and mid-level winds are rather weak today.  This should
   limit the risk of severe storm activity to very isolated and brief
   in nature.

   Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes are possible this afternoon over
   the mountains of northern ID and vicinity.  This threat should end
   by 00z.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z