Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 050034
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Thu Nov 04 2021
Valid 050100Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely across the U.S. through Friday
morning.
...FL...
Scattered storms currently persist along a diffuse warm front from
south FL westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Objective analysis
indicates around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is present, and the moist air mass
and approaching upper trough should result in continued storms
tonight, primarily over the water including the FL Straits. Despite
strong upper-level flow, winds below 500 mb are generally weak, but
are forecast to increase into Friday morning. At this time, it does
not appear severe storms will occur over land, but strong storms are
expected over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
..Jewell.. 11/05/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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