SPC AC 050454

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1154 PM CDT Thu Nov 04 2021

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong thunderstorms may impact the central and southern Florida
   Peninsula today and tonight with locally damaging wind gusts or a
   brief tornado.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   Thunderstorm chances will be focused over FL today, as high pressure
   maintains stable conditions over the majority of the CONUS.

   A shortwave trough will travel eastward across the Gulf of Mexico
   during the day, and across FL overnight. Midlevel wind speeds of
   40-50 kt will be likely, enhancing deep-layer shear. At the surface,
   low pressure will also move across central or southern parts of the
   state, mainly after 00Z, with a cold front clearing south FL near
   the of the period. Low-level wind shear will not be particularly
   strong due to veered and relatively weak 850 mb winds around 20 kt.

   Cloud cover will limit heating and destabilization during the day,
   with early day rain and thunderstorms expected as well. MLCAPE of
   500-750 J/kg appears likely due to dewpoints near 70 F and 500 mb
   temperatures of -8 to -10 C.

   While cellular activity during the day could potentially contain
   rotation, hodographs will eventually become more or less straight
   line, and the primary threat is expected to be locally damaging
   gusts as storms move ashore off the Gulf of Mexico.

   Elsewhere, strong cooling aloft will impact coastal WA and OR as a
   cold front moves ashore. Low-topped convection is possible this
   morning, followed by a few showers beneath the cold air aloft during
   the day. Weak instability suggests little severe threat.

   ..Jewell/Moore.. 11/05/2021

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