Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 051234
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021
Valid 051300Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH FL...
...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado or two, locally damaging winds, and small hail are
possible, mainly over south Florida this morning and southwest to
west-central Florida during the late afternoon and evening.
...FL...
Several weak and transient supercells occurred earlier this morning
across south FL within a low-level warm-advection regime when 0-3 km
SRH was enhanced along/ahead of the surface front. This flow has
commenced weakening over the past couple hours across the area per
Miami and Key West VWP data. This trend along with marginal 0-1 km
SRH and rather weak mid-level lapse rates environment should
continue to mitigate the magnitude and spatial extent of the severe
threat this morning. Widespread stratiform to the north of the
active thunderstorm activity will slow daytime destabilization. But
increasingly veered low-level winds along with impinging of a
mid-level dry slot from the central Gulf should aid in advancing the
surface front northward across parts of the peninsula later today.
Immediately ahead of the shortwave trough and attendant weak surface
cyclone that is progged to reach the west-central coast this
evening, an increase in severe potential may occur along the
southwest to west-central portion of the peninsula. Guidance does
differ with the degree of instability away from the immediate coast,
which appears tied to how much destabilization can occur in the wake
of convective activity that may linger most of the day across south
FL. In addition, the degree of low-level mass response varies as
well with most of the warm sector expected to have modest and veered
winds. As such, brief tornado potential may be confined to near the
immediate surface front, with greatest uncertainty in the extent of
the threat overnight towards the east-central coast.
..Grams/Broyles.. 11/05/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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