Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 051608
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021
Valid 051630Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado or two, locally damaging winds, and small hail are
possible, mainly over south Florida this morning and southwest to
west-central Florida during the late afternoon and evening.
...Portions of central and southern Florida...
A zone of enhanced mid- and upper-level ascent continues to move
slowly across central and southern Florida this morning per WV
imagery, in advance of a dry slot that will nose into western
Florida with time. This should permit a period of relative decrease
overall with respect to precipitation coverage across the peninsula
during the day, while a surface warm front drifts northward with
time. Still, persistent scattered/showery convection and cloud
cover should substantially limit heating/destabilization in most
areas.
At this time, it appears that the greatest potential for any
diurnal, modest boost in heating will be across western portions of
the peninsula as the dry slot spreads eastward/inland. Any
resulting/modest increase in CAPE would support potential for
slightly more vigorous convection to spread onshore/inland starting
later this afternoon. Along with any such enhancement of
convection, updraft intensity would be aided by gradually increasing
deep-layer shear, occurring as a result the expected, modest
strengthening of flow at all levels through the mid troposphere as a
surface low approaches -- and eventually reaches -- western Florida
during the evening hours.
Overall, expected environmental evolution suggests a relative
increase in potential for a brief tornado or two, or a few instances
of locally strong/damaging wind gusts, beginning late this afternoon
focused on the west-central Florida area. However, at this time
uncertainty prevails as to whether risk will rise to a level that
warrants an outlook upgrade. As such, we will re-evaluate the
scenario for the 20Z outlook update -- particularly related to
thermodynamic evolution through the afternoon -- that will likely be
a key variable with respect to any need to nudge severe risk
category/probability upward for the evening hours.
..Goss/Squitieri.. 11/05/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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