Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 070516
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CDT Sun Nov 07 2021
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are expected along the Pacific Northwest Coast
and near the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
...Discussion...
Most of the CONUS will remain lightning-free during the day1 period
due to the absence of meaningful instability across the country. One
notable exception is along the Pacific Northwest Coast where lapse
rates will be quite steep ahead of a short-wave trough. This
approaching short wave will force another surface trough to surge
inland around 18z along the WA/OR Coast. Forecast soundings across
this region exhibit 7-8 C/km lapse rates in the surface-6km layer
ahead of the wind shift. Very cold mid-level temperatures suggest
low-topped convection could produce a few flashes of lightning.
Weak elevated buoyancy is expected to persist through mid day along
the NC Coast. Elevated instability should gradually wane as the
effects of the strong offshore cyclone moves increasingly farther
east. While most thunderstorm activity should remain over the
Atlantic, a flash or two can not be ruled out early in the period.
..Darrow/Karstens.. 11/07/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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