Nov 7, 2021 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 7 16:26:05 UTC 2021 (20211107 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20211107 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211107 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20211107 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20211107 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20211107 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 071626

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1026 AM CST Sun Nov 07 2021

   Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S.
   today.

   ...Pacific Northwest...
   Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will remain a possibility today
   along coastal portions of Washington and Oregon. This scenario is
   supported by modest moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates
   coincident with low-amplitude cyclonic upper flow. Buoyancy will be
   quite limited overall, but somewhat more stout updrafts, including
   the possibility of small hail, may occur through early/mid-afternoon
   along the Washington coast. Thunderstorm potential is likely to
   diminish into this evening/overnight as upper heights begin to build
   and mid-level temperatures warm.

   ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 11/07/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z